WHAT’S Inflation and Deflation and a Speculation Concerning the Bitcoin Future

Recently I started buying bitcoins and I’ve heard a lot of discusses inflation and deflation however, not lots of people actually know and consider what inflation and deflation are. But let’s start with inflation.

We always needed ways to trade value and the most practical way to do it would be to link it with money. Previously it worked quite well because the money that was issued was linked to gold. So every central bank had to have enough gold to pay back all the money it issued. However, during the past century this changed and gold is not what is giving value to money but promises. As you can guess it’s very easy to abuse to such power and certainly the major central banks aren’t renouncing to do so. For this reason they’re printing money, so quite simply they are “creating wealth” out of nothing without really having it. This technique not merely exposes us to risks of economic collapse nonetheless it results also with the de-valuation of money. Therefore, because money will probably be worth less, whoever is selling something must increase the price of goods to reflect their real value, that is called inflation. But what’s behind the amount of money printing? Why are central banks doing so? Well the answer they might offer you is that by de-valuing their currency they’re helping the exports.

In fairness, in our global economy that is true. However, that’s not the only real reason. By issuing fresh money we can afford to pay back the debts we had, put simply we make new debts to cover the old ones. But that’s not only it, by de-valuing our currencies we are de-facto de-valuing our debts. That’s why our countries love inflation. In inflationary environments it’s simpler to grow because debts are cheap. But what are the consequences of all this? It’s hard to store wealth. So if you keep the money (you worked hard to get) in your money you’re actually losing wealth because your money is de-valuing pretty quickly.

Because each central bank comes with an inflation target at around 2% we can well say that keeping money costs most of us at least 2% per year. This discourages savers and spur consumes. This is one way our economies are working, predicated on inflation and debts.

What about deflation? Well this is often the opposite of inflation in fact it is the biggest nightmare for the central banks, let’s see why. Basically, we’ve deflation when overall the prices of goods fall. This would be caused by a rise of value of money. To begin with, it could hurt spending as consumers will be incentivised to save money because their value will increase overtime. However merchants will undoubtedly be under constant pressure. They will have to sell their goods quick otherwise they will lose money as the price they will charge for their services will drop over time. But if there is something we learned in these years is that central banks and governments do not care much about consumers or merchants, what they care probably the most is DEBT!!. In a deflationary environment debt will become a real burden as it will only get bigger over time. Because our economies derive from debt you can imagine exactly what will function as consequences of deflation.

So to summarize, inflation is growth friendly but is based on debt. Which means future generations can pay our debts. Deflation alternatively makes growth harder but it means that future generations won’t have much debt to pay (in such context it would be possible to afford slow growth).

OK so how all of this fits with bitcoins?

Well, bitcoins are designed to be an alternative for the money also to be both a store of value and a mean for trading goods. They are limited in number and we’ll never have a lot more than 21 million bitcoins around. Therefore they’re designed to be deflationary. We now have all seen what the consequences of deflation are. However, in Bitcoin Revolution -based future it could still be possible for businesses to thrive. The way to go will be to switch from a debt-based economy to a share-based economy. In fact, because contracting debts in bitcoins will be very expensive business can still obtain the capital they want by issuing shares of these company. This could be an interesting alternative as it will offer you many investment opportunities and the wealth generated will be distributed more evenly among people. However, just for clarity, I must say that part of the costs of borrowing capital will be reduced under bitcoins as the fees will be extremely low and there won’t be intermediaries between transactions (banks rip people off, both borrowers and lenders). This would buffer a few of the negative sides of deflation. Nevertheless, bitcoins will face many problems unfortunately, as governments still need fiat money to cover back the huge debts that people inherited from the past generations.